Tag Archives: risk

Beware of: Falling Computers, Bacteria Laced Skin Care Products, and the Obama Administration

> Home Computer Injuries Leap
> FDA warns against using Clarcon skin products
> U.S. Representative tells China not to believe Obama on Budget

Inebriated Press
June 11, 2009

Risky computer behavior

Risky computer behavior

HealthDay News reported on Tuesday that from 1994 to 2006 there has been a 732 percent increase in home computer injuries nationwide.  Research shows that a growing number of people are tripping over cables and getting hit by falling equipment.  And Associated Press reported Monday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is warning consumers not to use skin products made by Clarcon because of high levels of disease-causing bacteria.  Meanwhile, The Straits Times reported Tuesday that Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) told Chinese leaders that the US budget deficit could be larger than predicted and the budget that the US government has put forward should not be believed.  Inebriated reporters heavily medicated with Jack Daniels, put forth their view of truth and lies.

Someone named Suzi

Someone named Suzi

“Who gives a rats ass what Republicans say about the budget or the FDA says about skin care products or whether computers are falling from the sky.  Life is risky and if you’re going to be alive for a while, you assume some risks of a personal and financial nature, what the hell.  Anyway, you can’t believe most things that politicians and the government say,” said Suzi Blaktape-Mostly, an occasional reporter when wearing clothing and deciding to behave respectable.  “It’s all one big crap shoot and the administration is lying about the budget and the Republicans are telling tales to the Chinese.  So what?  FDA officials are probably getting fewer kickbacks under this administration so they’re squeezing the skin care companies by talking the bacteria thing.  And no computer has fallen from the sky near me.  I think it’s people getting hurt during rough sex that are using computer injury as an excuse because it’s easier to explain.  At least that’s what I do.”

Someone named Rachael

Someone named Rachael

Not everyone sees it like Blaktape-Mostly.  “The Republicans are telling it the way it is, whether that’s to the Chinese or the American people.  The Obama administration is spending trillions with no revenue stream, and that’s a fact.  And the FDA is trying its damndest to stop people from harming themselves with bad products.  It’s what they do and why the agency exists.  As far as computer injuries go, it just makes sense that if there are more PC’s around then the likelihood of people bumping into them or tripping over the cables is just going to increase,” said Rachael Holddmi-Tiet, an occasional columnist when she’s not working iron at Mikes Steel Mill and BBQ Strip Club.  “It’s true that politicians and government officials stretch the truth, but the Obama administration is setting a whole new standard for misdirection and outright falsehood.  I can’t believe that Obama and his minions are so stupid that they believe they can spend trillions of dollars and have a healthy budget and an inflation free economy.  So that means they have to be lying about it.  Of course I admit I still think that logic can prevail and that people aren’t all morons, so I give common sense a chance.  Maybe that’s the flaw in my thinking.”

Beware of killer computers!HealthDay News reported that computers are everywhere in the home these days — the office, the kid’s room, maybe even on the kitchen table. And that, according to new research, has led to more people showing up in emergency rooms with computer-related injuries. That increase has not been slight: From 1994 to 2006, injuries caused by people tripping over computer wires or getting hit by falling equipment rose from about 1,300 a year to 9,300 a year, an increase of 732 percent nationwide. Children under the age of 5 had the highest injury rate. The leading cause of injury for small children, and for adults over 60, was tripping or falling over computer equipment. But while most injuries were to the extremities such as the arms or legs, young children were five times more likely than other age groups to sustain a head injury.

FDA WarningAssociated Press reported that the Food and Drug Administration warned consumers Monday not to use skin products made by Clarcon because of high levels of disease-causing bacteria found during a recent inspection. Clarcon Biological Chemistry Laboratory Inc. of Roy, Utah, issued a voluntary recall of some skin sanitizers and skin protectants marketed under several different brand names, the FDA said in a statement. Consumers should not use any Clarcon products and should throw them away, the FDA said. Analyses of several samples of over-the-counter topical antimicrobial skin sanitizer and skin protectant products revealed high levels of various bacteria, including some associated with unsanitary conditions, according to the agency. Some of these bacteria can cause opportunistic infections of the skin and underlying tissues and could result in medical or surgical attention as well as permanent damage.

Obama budgetThe Straits Times reported that senior Chinese leaders have privately voiced fear over the soaring US budget deficit and are increasingly looking to diversify from the dollar, Representative Mr Mark Kirk said Monday after a trip to China that included talks with government officials and central bank chief Dr Zhou Xiaochuan. Mr Kirk’s assessment differed with that of Treasury Secretary Mr Timothy Geithner, who said last week on a separate visit that Chinese leaders had expressed ‘justifiable confidence’ on the future of the recession-hit US economy. Mr Kirk said that Chinese leaders were sharply critical in private of the US Federal Reserve’s policy of ‘quantitative easing’ – a form of flooding the financial system with cash, which critics deride as printing imaginary money. Government officials estimate a deficit of 1.841 trillion US dollars for the 2009 budget. 

Lying fun!Mr Kirk, a former diplomat who remains an active reservist in the US Navy, is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party and is eyeing a run next year for Mr Obama’s former US Senate seat in Illinois. He said he told the Chinese that the budget deficit could be even bigger than predicted, due in part to the rising costs to the US economy of health care. “One of the messages I had – because we need to build trust and confidence in our number one creditor – is that the budget numbers that the US government has put forward should not be believed,” Mr Kirk said. “Congress is actually going to spend quite a bit more,” he said. China is the largest creditor to the United States with some 700 billion dollars invested in Treasury bonds.

The nest may be empty ...

The nest may be empty ...

In other news, CNN reported Tuesday that parents adjusting to the last of their children leaving home, find that at first they’re depressed, but then couples spend more time with friends, have impromptu dates and more sex. “I absolutely miss my kids,” said Jane Shure, a 54-year-old mother of two from Philadelphia, who officially became an empty nester in August 2007.  “But I’m enjoying a really full life now.” Sara Gorchoff, Ph.D., a postdoctoral researcher at UC Berkeley, says a fall Sunday with the kids can now become a chance to go hiking together; raucous family meals turn into intimate dinners for two. And sex can regain some of the old abandon of the pre-children days.  No word on how ’empty nesters’ feel about Obama’s budget numbers or bacteria laden skin care products, but my guess is that more of them are in emergency rooms claiming to have been injured by computers rather than from having sex with reckless abandon.  But I’m only guessing.  There’ll probably be a stimulus funded study coming out to tell us the facts any day now.  Just as soon as the tattoo removal in L.A. is completed.

(C) 2009 InebriatedPress.com

Source articles:

Computers Causing Injuries in the Home
http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20090609/hl_hsn/computerscausinginjuriesinthehome

FDA warns against using Clarcon skin products
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090609/ap_on_go_ot/us_clarcon_recall

China airs fears: congressman
http://www.straitstimes.com/Overcoming%2BThe%2BStorm/Latest%2BStories/Story/STIStory_387854.html

Sex and other perks of empty nesting
http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/personal/06/09/o.end.empty.nest.syndrome/index.html

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Driver calls 911 during arrest; Effort to protect kids from snow; and Experts say remove fat kids from families

> Driver Dials 911 While Fighting Officers
> Children Banned from Snowy Parks
> Take Fat Kids from Parents, say Experts

Inebriated Press
February 4, 2009

090204floridahighwaypatrolWFTV Orlando reported Monday that a driver under arrest for speeding on Interstate Highway 4 called 911 for help while fighting a Florida Highway Patrol officer. And the UK Telegraph reported Monday that Camden Council in North London decided to lock its parks because the snow was slippery and children could fall and hurt themselves.  Meanwhile, Australia’s Herald Sun reported Monday that experts are telling authorities that the state should take posession of children by removing them from families with parents who allow them to become too fat.  Pundits are debating the nature of personal responsibility and the nanny state, while others think it’s high time that government rules all aspects of peoples lives.

Someone named Debbi

Someone named Debbi

“When Barack Obama gets a couple of trillion-dollar stiumulus packages out of the way so ACORN can get more funding, and he can focus directly on the social engineering of individuals, he’ll solve the all world’s problems by telling each of us what to do and how to live.  What a relief that will be,” said Debbi Door-Knob Heathcliff, a biped of unknown origin, who lives off the State the way nature intended.  “Parents don’t know how to raise children and the cops can’t be allowed to arrest people with whom they disagree.  We aren’t responsible for our actions or our children, only the State and bureaucrats are smart enough to define reality and the rules needed in order to exist in it.  I slipped on the ice once and if the State had been there to tell me where to walk I wouldn’t have bruised my ass.  Barack has a lot of stuff to fix.  Good thing he’s a light-bringer god.”

Clearly suicidal

Clearly suicidal

Not everyone agrees with Debbi.  “Life is about survival of the fittest and government intervention represents nothing more than failed attempts to control an accident.  Anybody who tells you otherwise is selling someting,” said Butch Malone-Halfpike, a Taekwando instructor and inventor of the Double Helix Flamethrower, recently banned by the Boy Scouts.  “Let the kids slip on the snow and over-eat, for crying out loud that’s what kids do.  And if you can create a diversion by calling 911 when the cops are trying to arrest you, more power to you.  It’s your version of reality versus theirs.  Who’s to say they’re right?  Screw it, do what you want to as much as you can for as long as you can.  Protect kids from snow?  Holy shit!”

Quick, call 911

Quick, call 911

WFTV Orlando reported that they obtained the 911 call made by a driver as he was being taken down by a trooper along busy I-4 near the Beachline over the weekend.  The Florida Highway Patrol released the tape of the 911 call where the suspect can be heard screaming for help, even though the video shows him resisting arrest the whole time. Investigators told Eyewitness News the man was following too closely behind a trooper on I-4. He eventually went around him and the trooper clocked him going 72 in a 65 and pulled him over, but the driver didn’t want to give up his license, insurance and registration. The driver, Kevin Allen, can be seen swinging his arms in the air when a state trooper tried to arrest him. The trooper struggled to slam him to the ground while another trooper ran up to help and the two then struggled to get him under control.

In the 911 call Allen made minutes before the takedown, he told dispatchers the troopers were attacking him. Allen was eventually cuffed and arrested. He’s facing charges of battery on a law enforcement officer, resisting arrest and reckless driving, because he didn’t think he deserved a speeding ticket. “He told the troopers afterwards, it was a matter of principle, that he felt he did nothing wrong, decided to batter a law enforcement officer to prove his point,” Sgt. Kim Miller said.

Risky behavior

Risky behavior

The Telegraph reported that children have been banned from playing in snow-covered parks after health and safety officers deemed them too dangerous. Camden Council in North London decided to lock all of its gated parks because the snow has made paths slippery. It meant that children enjoying a day off because of school closures could not take advantage of the deepest snow for 20 years in at least four popular parks. A spokesman for the council said that grit put down on the pathways on Sunday had not been enough to cope with the heavy snowfall overnight, so the parks had been closed on safety grounds. A spokeswoman for the Council said: “Our priority is caring for vulnerable residents and making the roads safe.”

Quick, take them from their parents!

Quick, take them from their parents!

The Herald Sun reported that child protection authorities should take fat kids into care, experts say, citing a 110cm 40kg four-year-old girl who watched TV for six hours a day. “Jade”, an imaginary girl comprised of several real cases also had tantrums when she was denied food, a report in the Medical Journal of Australia says. The example has obesity experts calling on child protection authorities to take extremely obese children from parents who allow them to become too fat. And a leading child psychologist in Melbourne has backed the call, saying that parents who allow children to become morbidly obese are guilty of child abuse. Dr Shirley Alexander and colleagues from Westmead Children’s Hospital in NSW said the number of obese children had doubled or tripled in many countries in recent years, and doctors needed to act. Melbourne child psychologist Dr Michael Carr-Gregg said taking children from their parents should only be done in extreme cases.

Some people say that common sense is now so uncommon that the term should no longer be used.

090204snowbabe“Once American’s elected a community organizer with less than one-term in the U.S. Senate and no business or governing experience as the President of the United States, I knew that common sense had finally died,” said Missy Moon-Pie, a sweet brunette with big eyes and a creamy filling.  “Of course experts and the government are going ban snowy parks and take fat kids away from their parents.  That’s just the start of things.  Once the regular folks abandon clear thinking and start dialing 911 when they’re being arrested for reckless driving, all that you’ve got left is the KGB, Nazi’s and dictators trying to  bring things under control. That’s why liberalism always ends up becoming totalitarianism.  It’s as natural as out-of-control astroids being grabbed by a planets gravity and crushed in the atmosphere.  Chaos begets domination and power always corrupts.  Stupidity just aids and abeds the process.”

Damn smoker, that'll teach'em

Damn smoker, that'll teach'em

In other news, the UK Mail Online reported Monday that a Sudanese man has been sentenced to 30 lashes for smoking on a domestic Saudi Arabian Airlines flight. Wearing just a thin shirt, he will be flogged by a policeman wielding a reed. The strokes are meant to inflict painful welts that bleed and bruise. The man was arrested when the aircraft landed in Jeddah and handed over to  police. The man apologised in court – and to prove his penitence presented evidence that he was attending a clinic to help him kick his heavy smoking habit. But the judge was keen to make an example and gave a sentence designed to serve  as a deterrent. Under Saudi’s Sharia or Islamic law, flogging is common for a number morals offences ranging from adultery to being alone in the company of an unrelated  person of the opposite sex.  No word on what kind of beatings parents with fat kids get, or what kind of lashing a child who disobeys the rules and plays in slipery snow ought to receive.

(C) 2009 InebriatedPress.com

Source articles:

Driver Calls 911 While Resisting Officers On I-4
http://www.wftv.com/news/18621731/detail.html?1

Children banned from snow-covered parks by health and safety brigade
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/4434768/Children-banned-from-snow-covered-parks-by-health-and-safety-brigade.html

Take fat kids into care, say experts
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24995715-2862,00.html

Man sentenced to 30 lashes after flouting no smoking ban on Saudi Arabian flight
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1134323/Man-sentenced-30-lashes-flouting-smoking-ban-Saudi-Arabian-flight.html

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Nempho slept with 200 guys she met online

Bar girl Louise, 25, scours net for sex with strangers

By Matthew Acton
News of The World – UK
02/02/2009

090203-bedded-2002MOST women surf the internet for clothes, shoes and bargains. Not Louise Grant. She scours the web for sex with total STRANGERS.

The 25-year-old bar manager is hooked on net sex and has slept with 200 online date mates.

On average, she beds a different man every FIVE DAYS. She’s even had sex with THREE of them in ONE DAY.

Louise claims to be driven by the “thrill” of no-strings sex with guys she’s just met.

She admits: “I can’t explain the buzz I get from meeting someone for the first time and knowing that in a couple of hours we’ll be ripping each other’s clothes off. It’s addictive.

"It's such a thrill knowing all these guys want me."

LOUISE: "It's such a thrill knowing all these guys want me."

“A lot of women may call me a slag, but I’m not. The sex is on my terms — I call the shots.”

And despite not knowing what creep may lurk behind a profile picture, Louise reckons her cyber bed-hopping is SAFER than conventional dating.

Risky

“My friends will meet guys in clubs and take them home,” she argues. “That’s more risky than what I do because I can check mine out before we meet.

“I’ll always insist on safe sex and carry condoms. If the guy complains, I won’t meet him.”

Louise, from Manchester, first started using the internet for sex after splitting with her fiancé three years ago.

Feeling lonely, she looked up an ex on Facebook. The next day they went out for drinks followed by sex.

Louise says: “I missed sex so much. We shared some wine and got a bit flirty — we knew we’d end up in bed together.

“When I left in the morning, it was refreshing just to kiss him goodbye and not worry about if he would call.”

Buzzing from her night of passion, Louise went straight online to sign up to an adult dating site, passion.com, where she could meet other guys for no-strings sex.

"I can't explain the buzz I get from meeting someone ..."

WEB SEX: "I can't explain the buzz I get from meeting someone ..."

Her first ad read: “Hi. I’m outgoing with a naughty side I want to explore. If you’d like to know more, drop me a line.”

And it wasn’t long before ahe was bombarded with messages — and gross pictures—from fellas who were desperate to “meet” her.

“I’m not model material,” admits Louise. “But I couldn’t believe how good-looking the blokes were. It’s such a thrill knowing all these guys want me.

“I checked the first man out on Facebook before we met. I also promised a friend I’d call her during the date.” Louise describes how the two met, had some wine and went back to her place: “He asked what I liked — so I told him exactly what I wanted.

“You can be totally uninhibited and not worry about being judged. Afterwards, he thanked me and said he’d see me soon. I was hooked.”

Louise quickly joined two other sex sites — be naughty.com and plentyoffish. com — and now rushes home from work every day to check her emails.

090203-web-predators1She recalls: “In the first month I met four guys and now meet around two a week. I’ve not counted but I must have slept with nearly 200 men.

“I remember meeting three guys in one day. The first was Paul at the Hilton Hotel in Manchester. We had an amazing night of sex and again in the morning. By lunch I’d met up with Chris, who was into swinging.”

And for dinner? Maneater Louise still wasn’t satisfied.

“He was in his mid-40s,” she says. “A George Clooney lookalike. He was handsome, rich and knew how to treat a woman.”

But she claims her most exciting encounter was when she indulged in kinky role play.

Louise says: “I acted out a sexy boss fantasy for a guy called Adam. I was wearing lingerie and high heels. I interviewed him before he grabbed me and told me to strip — it drove us both wild!

“Another guy I see loves giving women oral sex. He’ll come round to my flat just for that.”

But Louise saw the ugly side of net sex when she naively met a man without checking him out first. She says: “His profile pic looked nice but he was a total loser. He smoked cheap cigs, stunk and ate like a pig at dinner.” She made a quick exit.

090203-web-sex-toonLast year, 5.6 million singletons went on over 13 million internet first dates. Less than half of them led to one- night stands.

Louise reveals: “I’ve met married men, IT geeks and a few plumbers.

“I hear pals moan about their partners and thank my lucky stars I don’t have to put up with snoring, pants lying around or getting dinner ready.

“When I have a date, I put on sexy undies, drink wine with a gorgeous guy who takes me home and ravishes me.

“I’ll settle down one day but it’s too much fun at the moment.”

INTERNET SEX: SAFE OR SINFUL?
 
CATHERINE TOWNSEND, FABULOUS MAGAZINE’S SEX & RELATIONSHIPS EXPERT, SAYS …

Louise is having fun meeting guys on the net . . . and good for her. This is the future of relationships — whether it’s for no-strings sex or to meet someone for the long term.

The excitement of doing it this way is you can reject all those you don’t want straight away and go for the good stuff.

Lots of my friends meet men this way and they use the pics of guys like trading cards. There’s no harm in what Louise is doing as long as she’s very careful. Meet the guy in a public place and tell friends where you are.

JANE BUTTERWORTH, NEWS OF THE WORLD AGONY AUNT, SAYS …

What Louise is doing could be storing up trouble for the future.

She admits it is highly addictive, that she gets a buzz. In effect, she is using sex like a drug. Just as a junkie uses heroin to give themselves a short-term high or wipe out painful feelings, a sex addict uses the excitement of passion for similar reasons.

Any addiction is bad news because it eventually ends up controlling you. When that happens, it is hard to stop.

One day, says Louise, she wants to settle down, but how will her future partner view her sexual history?

newsoftheworld.co.uk

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Men want Babes, Women want Guys with Money

Evolutionary psychologists say men want pretty young women;
Evolutionary psychologists say women want older men with money;
And social psychologists say men will take bigger risks to win women they want

Inebriated Press
December 26, 2008

$$ Bill Gates & Warren Buffett $$

$$ Bill Gates & Warren Buffett $$

LiveScience reported last week that new analysis by the University of Gothenburg and the University of Oxford underscore the party line that men want to marry pretty women while women want older men with money — but we don’t always get what we want.  And MSNBC reported that a new study by social psychologists at Florida State University says that men may flirt with risk because they think it will help them score women. Meanwhile Inebriated reporters continue to ply one another with booze hoping to get whatever it is that they want.

“I was looking for a young good looking guy with money and thought I had one until he fell down drunk and dropped his wallet and food stamps fell out of it,” said Stacy Blackk-Leather, a hot babe and convection welder, who attracts men of all ages according to evolutionary psychologists.  “So now I’m looking for an old guy who can hold his liquor, his wallet and hopefully executive level employment.  I guess youth really is wasted on the young.  Well, never mind.  I’ll stick with the trends and go for old gold because it’s better than none.” 

Raquel Welch

Raquel Welch

Not everyone sees it the way evolutionary psychologists do.  “Forget the hot babes, I’m after old women with money and experience, and I’ll take whatever risks I have-to in order to hook up with one,” said Stanley White-Plastik, a twenty-eight year old guy and napkin designer, who trusts Florida State psychologists but not University of Gothenburg ones.  “Raquel Welch may be 68 but she’s hot, has money and is famous.  You think I’d pass on her for some twenty-year-old bimbo who is trying to ‘find herself’?  Well, maybe for a night or two, but not in the long run.”

LiveScience reported that for years evolutionary psychologists have been saying that men want young pretty women for their mates and women want older men with money. This party line was recently underscored when scientists from the University of Gothenburg and the University of Oxford analyzed 400 personal ads in newspapers and Web sites and found that, indeed, men want attractive young women and women want older men with resources. The new study backs findings discovered in 1985, when psychologist David Buss of the University of Texas published an article based on interviews with more than 10,000 people from 37 cultures.

Babes, money or both?

Babes, money or both?

Subjects in Buss’ study were given a list of 18 possible characteristics of a mate and asked to rate those characteristics. Almost universally, both sexes put love, dependable character, emotional stability, and pleasing disposition first, and it wasn’t until character number 5 that men and women differed. Men said looks were more important than women did, and status and money were more important to women. However, no matter what people might say to researchers, the truth is everyone ends up mating with people who are interested in them, people we run into, people who happen to look our way. And our “choices,” more often than not, are irrelevant.

MSNBC reported that men may take bigger risks because they think it will help them win women. Evolutionary psychologists have long believed that women are choosier about men than men are about women. Social psychologists at Florida State University set out to test that idea.  FSU researchers asked 134 undergraduate male and female psychology students to participate in an experiment involving pictures of the opposite sex and risk-taking in playing blackjack. They wanted to see whether men would take more risks if they were “in the mood” and if the men thought there were beautiful women around for them to woo.

081226_catherina_zeta_jonesWhat the social psychologists found was that men were much more likely to take risks playing blackjack if they were sexually motivated and had seen images of beautiful women before they played. The guys were also more likely to take risks if they saw attractive female faces and remembered them afterwards — even if they weren’t looking for a new partner — perhaps because the faces made more of an impression on them and ramped up their sexual desire. The behavior of the female students, however, wasn’t affected by what they felt, saw, or remembered. Interestingly, the study found that guys who saw attractive faces but weren’t sexually motivated did not take more risks than guys who saw unattractive faces. Study co-author Michael Baker, a doctoral student in social psychology at Florida State, speculates that guys only take risks if they stand to benefit from them, because risk-taking does come with a cost — after all, a bad skydiving or rock climbing experience could keep a guy from reproducing ever again.

Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin

In other news, CNN reported this week that before he accepted Barack Obama’s offer to join his presidential ticket as vice president, Joe Biden got a promise from Obama: that he would be there for “every critical decision,” Biden said in an interview on ABC’s “This Week.” No word on whether Obama had looked at attractive pictures of other possible candidates before choosing Biden, but when asked whether Biden had actually really received the promise he claimed, president-elect Obama said: “that’s not the kind of promise the Obama I know then would have made. Joe must have still been thinking about his debate with Sarah Palin.  I know he forgot his own name and drooled continuously for two days afterward.”

(C) 2008 InebriatedPress.com

Source articles:

The Perfect Mate: What We Really Want
http://www.livescience.com/culture/081219-hn-men-women-looks.html

Guys may flirt with risk more to score a mate
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28316943/

What Obama promised Biden
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/21/transition.wrap/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

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Intel: U.S. Clout Down, Risks Up

US clout down, risks up by 2025 -intel outlook

By Randall Mikkelsen
Reuters
Thu Nov 20, 2008

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) – U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, U.S. spy agencies projected on Thursday.

The National Intelligence Council analysis “Global Trends 2025” also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering.

The U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s major currency would weaken to become a “first among equals,” the report said.

The outlook is intended to inform U.S. President-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by U.S. intelligence analysts.

“The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks,” said the report, which was more pessimistic about U.S. influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

“It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems,” Fingar told reporters. “We could have a better world in 2025.”

China and India, following a “state capitalism” economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.

Russia’s potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT

A world with multiple power centers has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.

Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

“Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries,” the report said.

“Types of conflict we have not seen for a while — such as over resources — could reemerge,” it said.

Global wealth was seen shifting from the developed West to the energy-rich Gulf States and Russia, and to Asia, the rising center of manufacturing and some service industries.

Global rich-poor disparities would grow, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability.

A reordering of the world financial system was happening faster than the report’s authors envisioned, Fingar said. Last weekend’s Group of 20 summit of advanced and major developing countries in Washington showed work had begun, he said.

A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be underway or complete by 2025. Better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power offer the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said.

There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international nonproliferation systems.

If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, Fingar said, that could set off an arms race in the Middle East, which is considered in the report as an “arc of instability.”

The risk that militant groups would use biological weapons was greater than the risk of nuclear terrorism, the report said.

The appeal of terrorism could decline over the next two decades, particularly if Middle Eastern countries provide productive education and opportunities for their young people, the report said. But with a growing population, the pool of potential terrorism recruits is likely to be larger, and access to dangerous weapons will rise.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)
reuters.com

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